Information and Prediction Criteria in Selecting the Forecasting Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Exponentially Weighted Information Criteria for Selecting Among Forecasting Models
Information criteria (IC) are often used to select between forecasting models. Commonly used criteria are Akaike’s IC and Schwarz’s Bayesian IC. They involve the sum of two terms: the model’s log likelihood and a penalty for the number of model parameters. The likelihood is calculated with equal weight given to all observations. We propose that greater weight should be put on more recent observ...
متن کاملDevelopment of an optimal model of criteria for selecting the presidents of the universities in Iran
Objective: The selection of the presidents of the universities, considering the role of the university in today's knowledge-based world, becomes more complex every year. It is therefore expected that a careful and informed process be used when appointing or selecting such a manager. Considering the importance of selecting university presidents based on appropriate criteria, the present study wa...
متن کاملEmpirical information criteria for time series forecasting model selection
In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides...
متن کاملGrey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity consumption
Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electric...
متن کاملSelecting the Best Prediction Model for Readmission
OBJECTIVES This study aims to determine the risk factors predicting rehospitalization by comparing three models and selecting the most successful model. METHODS In order to predict the risk of rehospitalization within 28 days after discharge, 11 951 inpatients were recruited into this study between January and December 2009. Predictive models were constructed with three methods, logistic regr...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Dynamic Econometric Models
سال: 2011
ISSN: 1234-3862
DOI: 10.12775/dem.2011.002